Opinion Surveys vs. Direct Experience

How do opinion surveys of the uninitiated compare to the knowledge of those with direct experience? There’s a lot to be said for direct experience. While looking for an advantageous way to attack the Confederates in the Spring of 1862 the commander of the Federal army in Virginia and his staff approached the Chickahominy River. Stopping at the bank, they pondered whether it was too deep for troops to cross. As the group discussed the matter, one of the youngest staff members rode his horse down the bank and into the river. From his dry saddle at midstream he turned around and shouted back, “This is how deep it is General.” * The officer w...